Wednesday, May 11, 2005

Pride and Greed

I've written that I think that should China invade Taiwan, the Taiwanese military might be vulnerable to a fifth column on Taiwan. Officers in the Taiwanese military might be swayed by money or the pull of ethnic solidarity across the strait to striaght out defect or hinder effective military responses to a Chinese invasion. This seems like a major point of vulnerability.

In the news we have evidence of Taiwanese turncoats:

Taiwan and China frequently announce the arrest and conviction of alleged spies and are believed to be running extensive spy networks on each other's territory. Taiwan's defense ministry said Wednesday it would tighten security to thwart spying by Beijing.

In addition, the Taiwanese opposition flirts with the mainland communists. James Soong of another opposition party went to China:

The reconciliation between the Communists and the KMT, and now Soong's visit, have put pressure on Chen Shui-bian, Taiwan's independence-leaning president, to mend fences with Beijing.

Chinese Vice President Zeng Qinghong told Soong in a meeting on Wednesday that China and Taiwan should strengthen economic, cultural and personnel exchanges to contain and oppose Taiwan's independence movement, Xinhua news agency reported.

"Cross-strait compatriots are blood brothers, one family," Xinhua quoted Zeng as saying.

Speaking later at a banquet he hosted for Soong, Zeng added that both sides had to work hard, but proposed a toast for peace and development across the Strait and the rejuvenation of the Chinese nation.

Soong also toasted peace, so "that brothers can be reunited at an early date and create our vision of the 21st century."

The back-to-back visits by Lien and Soong are "aimed at opening a promising outlook of peace, stability, cooperation and a win-win situation between the two sides," Zeng added.


So in addition to money, we may have the problem of Taiwanese (or perhaps just the KMT refugees from the mainland) seduced by the desire to share in the apparent glories of Chinese progress toward superpower status that the mainland boasts about.

If you just count hardware and troops, Taiwan is probably secure. Toss in America and Japan and it looks suicidal for China to attack.

But if 23 million Taiwanese in fact break when struck by 1.3 billion Chinese (figuratively and psychologically, of course), the conventional wisdom won't mean jack. Taiwan will fall to the Chinese.

We need to bolster Taiwanese training and morale as much as we need to update their arsenal.